Texas

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Lean Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
25.4%
Polls: 46.5%
Trump
74.6%
Polls: 47.7% +1.2%
25.4%
74.6%



Swing

 
+7.8%
From 2016 Results
+9.3%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.241 Testing Range: +/- 5.25%




Tipping Point



2.6%
of the time





Polls

 
46.5%
Biden
47.7%
Trump (+1.2%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/28/20 9/29-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 14,742 Trump
51
Biden
47
+4% +9% 0.07
10/28/20 9/29-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 14,742 Trump
48
Biden
49
+1% +4% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 14,571 Trump
50
Biden
48
+2% +7% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 14,571 Trump
48
Biden
49
+1% +4% -
10/26/20 10/20-10/25 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 802 Trump
47
Biden
43
+4% +3.6% 1.12
10/26/20 10/22-10/25 Data for Progress B- LV 1,018 Trump
48
Biden
49
+1% +1% 1.03
10/26/20 10/13-10/20 YouGov B LV 1,000 Trump
50
Biden
44.7
+5.3% +5.7% 0.79
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 14,490 Trump
51
Biden
48
+3% +8% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 14,490 Trump
48
Biden
49
+1% +4% -
10/25/20 10/13-10/20 University of Texas at Tyler B/C LV 925 Trump
45
Biden
48
+3% +3.4% 0.72
10/25/20 10/13-10/20 University of Texas at Tyler B/C RV 1,012 Trump
44
Biden
46
+2% +2.4% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 14,436 Trump
51
Biden
47
+4% +9% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 14,436 Trump
48
Biden
49
+1% +4% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 14,434 Trump
51
Biden
47
+4% +9% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 14,434 Trump
48
Biden
49
+1% +4% -
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 14,395 Trump
51
Biden
47
+4% +9% -
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 14,395 Trump
48
Biden
49
+1% +4% -
10/22/20 10/11-10/20 Morning Consult B/C LV 3,347 Trump
47
Biden
48
+1% +0.8% 0.75
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 14,419 Trump
51
Biden
47
+4% +9% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 14,419 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +5% -
10/21/20 10/16-10/19 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,145 Trump
47
Biden
47
+0% +0.2% 0.85
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 14,204 Trump
51
Biden
47
+4% +9% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 14,204 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +5% -
10/19/20 10/15-10/18 Data for Progress B- LV 933 Trump
46
Biden
47
+1% +1% 0.75
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 14,047 Trump
51
Biden
47
+4% +9% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 14,047 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +5% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 13,991 Trump
51
Biden
47
+4% +9% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 13,991 Trump
48
Biden
49
+1% +4% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 13,873 Trump
51
Biden
47
+4% +9% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 13,873 Trump
48
Biden
49
+1% +4% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 13,549 Trump
51
Biden
47
+4% +9% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 13,549 Trump
48
Biden
49
+1% +4% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 13,199 Trump
51
Biden
47
+4% +9% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 13,199 Trump
48
Biden
49
+1% +4% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 13,081 Trump
51
Biden
47
+4% +9% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 13,081 Trump
48
Biden
49
+1% +4% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 13,198 Trump
50
Biden
47
+3% +8% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 13,198 Trump
48
Biden
49
+1% +4% -
10/13/20 10/2-10/11 Morning Consult B/C LV 3,455 Trump
49
Biden
47
+2% +2.2% 0.48
10/9/20 9/25-10/4 YouGov B LV 908 Trump
50
Biden
45
+5% +5.4% 0.34
10/8/20 10/7-10/8 Public Policy Polling B V 721 Trump
49
Biden
50
+1% +0.6% 0.53
10/8/20 10/5-10/6 Pulse Opinion Research C+ LV 1,000 Trump
51
Biden
44
+7% +5.4% 0.4
10/7/20 9/30-10/5 Data for Progress B- LV 1,949 Trump
45
Biden
47
+2% +2% 0.38
10/7/20 9/27-10/2 EMC Research LV 848 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +0% -
10/7/20 10/3-10/6 Civiqs B/C LV 895 Trump
48
Biden
48
+0% +0% 0.39
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,669 Trump
47.5
Biden
49.4
+1.9% +3.1% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,669 Trump
51.5
Biden
46.2
+5.3% +10.3% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 13,721 Trump
48.5
Biden
48.7
+0.2% +4.8% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 13,721 Trump
52
Biden
46.2
+5.9% +10.9% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 12,607 Trump
48.5
Biden
48.8
+0.3% +4.7% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 12,607 Trump
51.8
Biden
46.4
+5.4% +10.4% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 13,395 Trump
48.5
Biden
48.3
+0.2% +5.2% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 13,395 Trump
51.8
Biden
46.1
+5.7% +10.7% -
10/2/20 9/24-9/27 Hart Research Associates B/C LV 400 Trump
49
Biden
47
+2% +3.4% 0.2
9/29/20 9/18-9/25 University of Massachusetts Lowell A/B LV 882 Trump
50
Biden
46
+4% +3.8% 0.06
9/29/20 9/18-9/25 University of Massachusetts Lowell A/B LV 882 Trump
49
Biden
46
+3% +2.8% 0.06
9/28/20 9/25-9/26 Public Policy Polling B LV 612 Trump
48
Biden
48
+0% +0.4% 0.27
9/25/20 9/15-9/22 Data for Progress B- LV 726 Trump
46
Biden
45
+1% +1% 0.13
9/24/20 9/17-9/21 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,078 Trump
50
Biden
45
+5% +5.2% 0.22
9/24/20 9/16-9/22 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 653 Trump
46
Biden
43
+3% +2.6% 0.33
9/21/20 8/20-8/25 The Tyson Group B/C LV 906 Trump
44
Biden
48
+4% +4% -
9/20/20 9/15-9/18 YouGov B LV 1,140 Trump
48
Biden
46
+2% +2.4% 0.16
9/9/20 8/29-9/7 Morning Consult B/C LV 2,829 Trump
46
Biden
46
+0% +0.2% -
9/8/20 9/1-9/2 Public Policy Polling B V 743 Trump
48
Biden
47
+1% +1.4% 0.09
9/6/20 8/28-9/2 University of Texas at Tyler B/C LV 901 Trump
48
Biden
46
+2% +1.6% -
9/6/20 8/28-9/2 University of Texas at Tyler B/C RV 1,176 Trump
43
Biden
44
+1% +1.4% -
9/4/20 8/20-8/25 Data for Progress B- LV 2,295 Trump
45
Biden
48
+3% +3% -
9/1/20 8/21-8/30 Morning Consult B/C LV 2,632 Trump
48
Biden
47
+1% +1.2% -
9/1/20 8/7-8/16 Morning Consult B/C LV 2,559 Trump
47
Biden
46
+1% +1.2% -
8/24/20 8/21-8/22 Public Policy Polling B V 764 Trump
47
Biden
48
+1% +0.6% -
8/20/20 8/11-8/13 Global Strategy Group B/C LV 700 Trump
45
Biden
47
+2% +0.2% -
8/17/20 8/4-8/13 YouGov B RV 846 Trump
47.5
Biden
40.5
+7% +7.4% -
8/7/20 8/1-8/5 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,015 Trump
49.4
Biden
43.4
+6% +5% -
8/4/20 7/24-8/2 Morning Consult B/C LV 2,576 Trump
46
Biden
47
+1% +0.8% -
7/28/20 5/17-5/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 2,551 Trump
50
Biden
43
+7% +7.2% -
7/28/20 7/17-7/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 2,685 Trump
45
Biden
47
+2% +1.8% -
7/22/20 7/16-7/20 Spry Strategies B/C LV 750 Trump
49.5
Biden
44.8
+4.7% +4.3% -
7/22/20 7/16-7/20 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 880 Trump
44
Biden
45
+1% +0.8% -
7/14/20 7/7-7/7 Gravis Marketing C LV 591 Trump
46
Biden
44
+2% +3% -
7/12/20 7/7-7/10 YouGov B LV 1,185 Trump
46
Biden
45
+1% +1.4% -
7/12/20 6/29-7/7 University of Texas at Tyler B/C LV 1,677 Trump
43
Biden
48
+5% +5.4% -
7/12/20 6/29-7/7 University of Texas at Tyler B/C RV 1,909 Trump
41
Biden
46
+5% +5.4% -
7/2/20 6/19-6/29 YouGov B RV 1,200 Trump
48
Biden
44
+4% +4.4% -
7/2/20 6/24-6/25 Public Policy Polling B V 729 Trump
46
Biden
48
+2% +1.6% -
6/25/20 6/20-6/23 Fox News A- RV 1,001 Trump
44
Biden
45
+1% +0.4% -
6/23/20 6/18-6/19 Public Policy Polling B V 907 Trump
48
Biden
46
+2% +2.4% -
6/5/20 6/3-6/4 Public Policy Polling B V 682 Trump
48
Biden
48
+0% +0.4% -
6/3/20 5/28-6/1 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 1,166 Trump
44
Biden
43
+1% +1.2% -
5/11/20 5/8-5/10 Emerson College A- RV 800 Trump
51.7
Biden
48.3
+3.4% +3.8% -
5/2/20 4/18-4/27 University of Texas at Tyler B/C RV 1,183 Trump
43
Biden
43
+0% +0.4% -
4/29/20 4/27-4/28 Public Policy Polling B V 1,032 Trump
46
Biden
47
+1% +0.6% -
4/25/20 4/10-4/19 YouGov B RV 1,200 Trump
49
Biden
44
+5% +5.4% -
3/2/20 2/24-3/2 AtlasIntel B/C RV 1,100 Trump
46.5
Biden
42.8
+3.7% +3.7% -
3/1/20 2/23-2/27 Marist College A+ RV 2,409 Trump
49
Biden
45
+4% +3.6% 0.12
3/1/20 2/17-2/26 University of Texas at Tyler B/C RV 1,221 Trump
45
Biden
44
+1% +0.6% -
2/28/20 2/22-2/26 CNN/SSRS B/C RV 1,003 Trump
47
Biden
48
+1% +0.2% -
2/28/20 2/21-2/26 Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions B/C RV 1,004 Trump
46
Biden
43
+3% +3% -
2/14/20 1/31-2/9 YouGov B RV 1,200 Trump
47
Biden
43
+4% +4.4% -
2/2/20 1/21-1/30 University of Texas at Tyler B/C RV 1,169 Trump
44
Biden
42
+2% +1.6% -
1/29/20 1/16-1/21 Data for Progress B- LV 1,486 Trump
54
Biden
40
+14% +14% -
1/29/20 1/10-1/19 Texas Lyceum LV 520 Trump
51
Biden
46
+5% +5% -
12/11/19 12/4-12/9 CNN/SSRS B/C RV 1,003 Trump
48
Biden
47
+1% +2.2% -
12/2/19 11/9-11/21 Beacon Research B/C RV 1,000 Trump
45
Biden
44
+1% +1% -
11/18/19 11/5-11/14 University of Texas at Tyler B/C RV 1,093 Trump
44.5
Biden
39.4
+5.1% +4.7% -
11/4/19 10/18-10/27 YouGov B RV 1,200 Trump
46
Biden
39
+7% +7.4% -
9/19/19 9/13-9/15 University of Texas at Tyler B/C RV 1,199 Trump
38
Biden
39.6
+1.6% +2% -
9/11/19 8/20-8/25 Climate Nexus RV 1,660 Trump
43
Biden
43
+0% +0% -
9/10/19 8/31-9/6 Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research RV 1,004 Trump
43
Biden
47
+4% +4% -
8/6/19 8/1-8/4 University of Texas at Tyler B/C RV 1,261 Trump
37.2
Biden
41.2
+4% +4.4% -
8/6/19 8/1-8/3 Emerson College A- RV 1,033 Trump
49.2
Biden
50.8
+1.6% +1.2% -
7/30/19 7/24-7/27 University of Texas at Tyler B/C RV 1,414 Trump
37.1
Biden
36.9
+0.2% +0.2% -
6/5/19 5/29-6/4 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 1,159 Trump
44
Biden
48
+4% +3.8% -
5/11/19 4/27-4/30 WPA Intelligence B/C LV 200 Trump
49
Biden
42
+7% +6.2% -
4/29/19 4/25-4/28 Emerson College A- RV 799 Trump
49.5
Biden
50.5
+1% +0.6% -
2/28/19 2/20-2/25 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 1,222 Trump
47
Biden
46
+1% +1.2% -
2/15/19 2/13-2/14 Public Policy Polling B RV 743 Trump
49
Biden
46
+3% +3.4% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 52.2 43.2 +9%
2012 Romney v Obama 57.2 41.4 +15.8%
2008 McCain v Obama 55.5 43.7 +11.8%
2004 Bush v Kerry 61.1 38.2 +22.9%
2000 Bush v Gore 59.3 38 +21.3%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 10:34 AM EDT
9/6
Texas changed from Toss Up to Lean Trump
9/4
Texas changed from Lean Trump to Toss Up
8/17
Texas changed from Toss Up to Lean Trump