Texas

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/5 10:28 PM EDT
Winner
Trump
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Texas changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Texas Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Lean Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
21.1%
Polls: 47.1%
Trump
78.9%
Polls: 48.6% +1.5%
21.1%
78.9%



Swing

 
+7.5%
From 2016 Results
+9%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 1.938 Testing Range: +/- 4.5%




Tipping Point



1.6%
of the time





Polls

 
47.1%
Biden
48.6%
Trump (+1.5%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/27-11/2 Swayable D- LV 1,151 Trump
51.2		 Biden
47.2		 +4% +4% 0.63
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 8,250 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% 0.17
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 8,250 Trump
48		 Biden
50		 +2% +3% -
11/2/20 10/22-10/31 Morning Consult B/C LV 3,267 Trump
48.1		 Biden
48.1		 0% +0.2% 1.07
11/1/20 10/30-10/31 AtlasIntel B/C LV 962 Trump
50		 Biden
47.3		 +2.7% +2.7% 1.08
11/1/20 10/27-11/1 Data for Progress B- LV 926 Trump
48		 Biden
49		 +1% +1% 1.04
11/1/20 10/17-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 8,692 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% 0.11
11/1/20 10/17-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 8,692 Trump
48		 Biden
50		 +2% +3% -
11/1/20 9/29-10/27 CCES / YouGov B LV 2,947 Trump
49		 Biden
47		 +2% +2.4% 0.5
11/1/20 10/29-10/31 Emerson College A- LV 763 Trump
49.7		 Biden
48.7		 +1% +1.4% 1.13
11/1/20 10/27-10/28 Gravis Marketing C LV 670 Trump
50		 Biden
45		 +5% +6% 0.82
10/31/20 10/16-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 8,616 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% 0.08
10/31/20 10/16-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 8,616 Trump
48		 Biden
50		 +2% +3% -
10/31/20 10/28-10/29 Public Policy Polling B V 775 Trump
48		 Biden
50		 +2% +1.6% 0.98
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 8,648 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% 0.08
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 8,648 Trump
48		 Biden
50		 +2% +3% -
10/30/20 10/23-10/26 Swayable D- LV 552 Trump
48.6		 Biden
47.5		 +1.1% +1.1% 0.35
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 15,145 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 15,145 Trump
48		 Biden
49		 +1% +4% -
10/29/20 10/27-10/28 RMG Research B/C LV 800 Trump
50		 Biden
46		 +4% +4% 0.91
10/29/20 10/20-10/26 University of Massachusetts Lowell A/B LV 873 Trump
48		 Biden
47		 +1% +0.8% 0.83
10/29/20 10/17-10/20 Citizen Data LV 1,000 Trump
45		 Biden
48.9		 +3.9% +3.9% 0.29
10/28/20 10/17-10/25 Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research RV 758 Trump
49		 Biden
46		 +3% +3% 0.36
10/28/20 9/29-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 14,742 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/28/20 9/29-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 14,742 Trump
48		 Biden
49		 +1% +4% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 14,571 Trump
50		 Biden
48		 +2% +7% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 14,571 Trump
48		 Biden
49		 +1% +4% -
10/26/20 10/20-10/25 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 802 Trump
47		 Biden
43		 +4% +3.6% 0.93
10/26/20 10/22-10/25 Data for Progress B- LV 1,018 Trump
48		 Biden
49		 +1% +1% 0.8
10/26/20 10/13-10/20 YouGov B LV 1,000 Trump
50		 Biden
44.7		 +5.3% +5.7% 0.59
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 14,490 Trump
51		 Biden
48		 +3% +8% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 14,490 Trump
48		 Biden
49		 +1% +4% -
10/25/20 10/13-10/20 University of Texas at Tyler B/C LV 925 Trump
45		 Biden
48		 +3% +3.4% 0.53
10/25/20 10/13-10/20 University of Texas at Tyler B/C RV 1,012 Trump
44		 Biden
46		 +2% +2.4% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 14,436 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 14,436 Trump
48		 Biden
49		 +1% +4% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 14,434 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 14,434 Trump
48		 Biden
49		 +1% +4% -
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 14,395 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 14,395 Trump
48		 Biden
49		 +1% +4% -
10/22/20 10/11-10/20 Morning Consult B/C LV 3,347 Trump
47		 Biden
48		 +1% +0.8% 0.54
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 14,419 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 14,419 Trump
49		 Biden
49		 0% +5% -
10/21/20 10/16-10/19 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,145 Trump
47		 Biden
47		 0% +0.2% 0.65
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 14,204 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 14,204 Trump
49		 Biden
49		 0% +5% -
10/19/20 10/15-10/18 Data for Progress B- LV 933 Trump
46		 Biden
47		 +1% +1% 0.56
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 14,047 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 14,047 Trump
49		 Biden
49		 0% +5% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 13,991 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 13,991 Trump
48		 Biden
49		 +1% +4% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 13,873 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 13,873 Trump
48		 Biden
49		 +1% +4% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 13,549 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 13,549 Trump
48		 Biden
49		 +1% +4% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 13,199 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 13,199 Trump
48		 Biden
49		 +1% +4% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 13,081 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 13,081 Trump
48		 Biden
49		 +1% +4% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 13,198 Trump
50		 Biden
47		 +3% +8% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 13,198 Trump
48		 Biden
49		 +1% +4% -
10/13/20 10/2-10/11 Morning Consult B/C LV 3,455 Trump
49		 Biden
47		 +2% +2.2% 0.31
10/9/20 9/25-10/4 YouGov B LV 908 Trump
50		 Biden
45		 +5% +5.4% 0.19
10/8/20 10/7-10/8 Public Policy Polling B V 721 Trump
49		 Biden
50		 +1% +0.6% 0.39
10/8/20 10/5-10/6 Pulse Opinion Research C+ LV 1,000 Trump
51		 Biden
44		 +7% +5.4% 0.23
10/7/20 9/30-10/5 Data for Progress B- LV 1,949 Trump
45		 Biden
47		 +2% +2% 0.24
10/7/20 9/27-10/2 EMC Research LV 848 Trump
49		 Biden
49		 0% 0% -
10/7/20 10/3-10/6 Civiqs B/C LV 895 Trump
48		 Biden
48		 0% 0% 0.23
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,669 Trump
47.5		 Biden
49.4		 +1.9% +3.1% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,669 Trump
51.5		 Biden
46.2		 +5.3% +10.3% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 13,721 Trump
48.5		 Biden
48.7		 +0.2% +4.8% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 13,721 Trump
52		 Biden
46.2		 +5.9% +10.9% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 12,607 Trump
48.5		 Biden
48.8		 +0.3% +4.7% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 12,607 Trump
51.8		 Biden
46.4		 +5.4% +10.4% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 13,395 Trump
48.5		 Biden
48.3		 +0.2% +5.2% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 13,395 Trump
51.8		 Biden
46.1		 +5.7% +10.7% -
10/2/20 9/24-9/27 Hart Research Associates B/C LV 400 Trump
49		 Biden
47		 +2% +3.4% -
9/29/20 9/18-9/25 University of Massachusetts Lowell A/B LV 882 Trump
50		 Biden
46		 +4% +3.8% -
9/29/20 9/18-9/25 University of Massachusetts Lowell A/B LV 882 Trump
49		 Biden
46		 +3% +2.8% -
9/28/20 9/25-9/26 Public Policy Polling B V 612 Trump
48		 Biden
48		 0% +0.4% 0.18
9/25/20 9/15-9/22 Data for Progress B- LV 726 Trump
46		 Biden
45		 +1% +1% -
9/24/20 9/17-9/21 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,078 Trump
50		 Biden
45		 +5% +5.2% 0.07
9/24/20 9/16-9/22 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 653 Trump
46		 Biden
43		 +3% +2.6% 0.21
9/21/20 8/20-8/25 The Tyson Group B/C LV 906 Trump
44		 Biden
48		 +4% +4% -
9/20/20 9/15-9/18 YouGov B LV 1,140 Trump
48		 Biden
46		 +2% +2.4% -
9/9/20 8/29-9/7 Morning Consult B/C LV 2,829 Trump
46		 Biden
46		 0% +0.2% -
9/8/20 9/1-9/2 Public Policy Polling B V 743 Trump
48		 Biden
47		 +1% +1.4% -
9/6/20 8/28-9/2 University of Texas at Tyler B/C LV 901 Trump
48		 Biden
46		 +2% +1.6% -
9/6/20 8/28-9/2 University of Texas at Tyler B/C RV 1,176 Trump
43		 Biden
44		 +1% +1.4% -
9/4/20 8/20-8/25 Data for Progress B- LV 2,295 Trump
45		 Biden
48		 +3% +3% -
9/1/20 8/21-8/30 Morning Consult B/C LV 2,632 Trump
48		 Biden
47		 +1% +1.2% -
9/1/20 8/7-8/16 Morning Consult B/C LV 2,559 Trump
47		 Biden
46		 +1% +1.2% -
8/24/20 8/21-8/22 Public Policy Polling B V 764 Trump
47		 Biden
48		 +1% +0.6% -
8/20/20 8/11-8/13 Global Strategy Group B/C LV 700 Trump
45		 Biden
47		 +2% +0.2% -
8/17/20 8/4-8/13 YouGov B RV 846 Trump
47.5		 Biden
40.5		 +7% +7.4% -
8/7/20 8/1-8/5 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,015 Trump
49.4		 Biden
43.4		 +6% +5% -
8/4/20 7/24-8/2 Morning Consult B/C LV 2,576 Trump
46		 Biden
47		 +1% +0.8% -
7/28/20 5/17-5/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 2,551 Trump
50		 Biden
43		 +7% +7.2% -
7/28/20 7/17-7/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 2,685 Trump
45		 Biden
47		 +2% +1.8% -
7/22/20 7/16-7/20 Spry Strategies B/C LV 750 Trump
49.5		 Biden
44.8		 +4.7% +4.3% -
7/22/20 7/16-7/20 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 880 Trump
44		 Biden
45		 +1% +0.8% -
7/14/20 7/7-7/7 Gravis Marketing C LV 591 Trump
46		 Biden
44		 +2% +3% -
7/12/20 7/7-7/10 YouGov B LV 1,185 Trump
46		 Biden
45		 +1% +1.4% -
7/12/20 6/29-7/7 University of Texas at Tyler B/C LV 1,677 Trump
43		 Biden
48		 +5% +5.4% -
7/12/20 6/29-7/7 University of Texas at Tyler B/C RV 1,909 Trump
41		 Biden
46		 +5% +5.4% -
7/2/20 6/19-6/29 YouGov B RV 1,200 Trump
48		 Biden
44		 +4% +4.4% -
7/2/20 6/24-6/25 Public Policy Polling B V 729 Trump
46		 Biden
48		 +2% +1.6% -
6/25/20 6/20-6/23 Fox News A- RV 1,001 Trump
44		 Biden
45		 +1% +0.4% -
6/23/20 6/18-6/19 Public Policy Polling B V 907 Trump
48		 Biden
46		 +2% +2.4% -
6/5/20 6/3-6/4 Public Policy Polling B V 682 Trump
48		 Biden
48		 0% +0.4% -
6/3/20 5/28-6/1 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 1,166 Trump
44		 Biden
43		 +1% +1.2% -
5/11/20 5/8-5/10 Emerson College A- RV 800 Trump
51.7		 Biden
48.3		 +3.4% +3.8% -
5/2/20 4/18-4/27 University of Texas at Tyler B/C RV 1,183 Trump
43		 Biden
43		 0% +0.4% -
4/29/20 4/27-4/28 Public Policy Polling B V 1,032 Trump
46		 Biden
47		 +1% +0.6% -
4/25/20 4/10-4/19 YouGov B RV 1,200 Trump
49		 Biden
44		 +5% +5.4% -
3/2/20 2/24-3/2 AtlasIntel B/C RV 1,100 Trump
46.5		 Biden
42.8		 +3.7% +3.7% -
3/1/20 2/23-2/27 Marist College A+ RV 2,409 Trump
49		 Biden
45		 +4% +3.6% -
3/1/20 2/17-2/26 University of Texas at Tyler B/C RV 1,221 Trump
45		 Biden
44		 +1% +0.6% -
2/28/20 2/22-2/26 CNN/SSRS B/C RV 1,003 Trump
47		 Biden
48		 +1% +0.2% -
2/28/20 2/21-2/26 Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions B/C RV 1,004 Trump
46		 Biden
43		 +3% +3% -
2/14/20 1/31-2/9 YouGov B RV 1,200 Trump
47		 Biden
43		 +4% +4.4% -
2/2/20 1/21-1/30 University of Texas at Tyler B/C RV 1,169 Trump
44		 Biden
42		 +2% +1.6% -
1/29/20 1/16-1/21 Data for Progress B- LV 1,486 Trump
54		 Biden
40		 +14% +14% -
1/29/20 1/10-1/19 Texas Lyceum LV 520 Trump
51		 Biden
46		 +5% +5% -
12/11/19 12/4-12/9 CNN/SSRS B/C RV 1,003 Trump
48		 Biden
47		 +1% +2.2% -
12/2/19 11/9-11/21 Beacon Research B/C RV 1,000 Trump
45		 Biden
44		 +1% +1% -
11/18/19 11/5-11/14 University of Texas at Tyler B/C RV 1,093 Trump
44.5		 Biden
39.4		 +5.1% +4.7% -
11/4/19 10/18-10/27 YouGov B RV 1,200 Trump
46		 Biden
39		 +7% +7.4% -
9/19/19 9/13-9/15 University of Texas at Tyler B/C RV 1,199 Trump
38		 Biden
39.6		 +1.6% +2% -
9/11/19 8/20-8/25 Climate Nexus RV 1,660 Trump
43		 Biden
43		 0% 0% -
9/10/19 8/31-9/6 Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research RV 1,004 Trump
43		 Biden
47		 +4% +4% -
8/6/19 8/1-8/4 University of Texas at Tyler B/C RV 1,261 Trump
37.2		 Biden
41.2		 +4% +4.4% -
8/6/19 8/1-8/3 Emerson College A- RV 1,033 Trump
49.2		 Biden
50.8		 +1.6% +1.2% -
7/30/19 7/24-7/27 University of Texas at Tyler B/C RV 1,414 Trump
37.1		 Biden
36.9		 +0.2% +0.2% -
6/5/19 5/29-6/4 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 1,159 Trump
44		 Biden
48		 +4% +3.8% -
5/11/19 4/27-4/30 WPA Intelligence B/C LV 200 Trump
49		 Biden
42		 +7% +6.2% -
4/29/19 4/25-4/28 Emerson College A- RV 799 Trump
49.5		 Biden
50.5		 +1% +0.6% -
2/28/19 2/20-2/25 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 1,222 Trump
47		 Biden
46		 +1% +1.2% -
2/15/19 2/13-2/14 Public Policy Polling B RV 743 Trump
49		 Biden
46		 +3% +3.4% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 52.2 43.2 +9%
2012 Romney v Obama 57.2 41.4 +15.8%
2008 McCain v Obama 55.5 43.7 +11.8%
2004 Bush v Kerry 61.1 38.2 +22.9%
2000 Bush v Gore 59.3 38 +21.3%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/2 11:45 PM EDT
9/6
Texas changed from Toss Up to Lean Trump
9/4
Texas changed from Lean Trump to Toss Up
8/17
Texas changed from Toss Up to Lean Trump