Utah

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
0.8%
Polls: 39.2%
Trump
99.2%
Polls: 51.7% +12.5%
0.8%
99.2%



Swing

 
+5.5%
From 2016 Results
+4%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 3.364 Testing Range: +/- 7.82%






Polls

 
39.2%
Biden
51.7%
Trump (+12.5%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,689 Trump
54
Biden
43
+11% +16% 0.14
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,689 Trump
54
Biden
43
+11% +16% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,466 Trump
52
Biden
45
+7% +12% 0.1
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,466 Trump
52
Biden
46
+6% +11% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,434 Trump
52
Biden
45
+7% +12% 0.08
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,434 Trump
52
Biden
45
+7% +12% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,398 Trump
52
Biden
45
+7% +12% 0.07
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,398 Trump
52
Biden
46
+6% +11% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,340 Trump
52
Biden
45
+7% +12% 0.05
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,340 Trump
52
Biden
46
+6% +11% -
10/23/20 10/12-10/17 RMG Research B/C LV 1,000 Trump
50
Biden
38
+12% +12% 0.69
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,304 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,304 Trump
52
Biden
45
+7% +12% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,279 Trump
52
Biden
45
+7% +12% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,279 Trump
52
Biden
45
+7% +12% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,239 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,239 Trump
52
Biden
45
+7% +12% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,187 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,187 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,152 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,152 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,112 Trump
54
Biden
44
+10% +15% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,112 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,002 Trump
54
Biden
44
+10% +15% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,002 Trump
54
Biden
44
+10% +15% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,913 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,913 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,843 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,843 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,783 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,783 Trump
54
Biden
44
+10% +15% -
10/5/20 9/26-10/4 Y2 Analytics B/C LV 1,214 Trump
50
Biden
40
+10% +10.4% 0.37
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 412 Trump
54.9
Biden
43.2
+11.7% +16.7% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 412 Trump
57.3
Biden
41.4
+15.8% +20.8% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,037 Trump
58.1
Biden
39.8
+18.3% +23.3% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,037 Trump
58.4
Biden
40
+18.4% +23.4% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 893 Trump
56.4
Biden
42
+14.4% +19.4% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 893 Trump
57
Biden
41.5
+15.6% +20.6% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,192 Trump
55.6
Biden
42.7
+12.9% +17.9% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,192 Trump
56.1
Biden
42.3
+13.8% +18.8% -
9/17/20 9/7-9/12 RMG Research B/C LV 1,000 Trump
53
Biden
35
+18% +18% 0.12
8/7/20 7/27-8/1 RMG Research B/C RV 1,000 Trump
50
Biden
31
+19% +19% -
6/18/20 5/9-5/15 Y2 Analytics B/C LV 1,078 Trump
48
Biden
38
+10% +10.4% -
6/18/20 5/9-5/15 Y2 Analytics B/C LV 1,078 Trump
48
Biden
38
+10% +10.4% -
6/18/20 5/9-5/15 Y2 Analytics B/C LV 1,078 Trump
46
Biden
40
+6% +6.4% -
6/18/20 5/9-5/15 Y2 Analytics B/C LV 1,078 Trump
46
Biden
40
+6% +6.4% -
5/26/20 5/9-5/15 Y2 Analytics B/C LV 1,078 Trump
44
Biden
41
+3% +3.4% -
4/29/20 4/15-4/21 RMG Research B/C RV 964 Trump
51
Biden
32
+19% +19% -
4/13/20 3/21-3/30 Y2 Analytics B/C LV 1,266 Trump
46
Biden
41
+5% +5.4% -
3/6/20 2/24-3/1 RMG Research B/C RV 1,000 Trump
50
Biden
33
+17% +17% -
1/30/20 1/15-1/22 RMG Research B/C RV 1,017 Trump
49
Biden
31
+18% +18% -
8/30/19 7/31-8/6 Y2 Analytics B/C RV 149 Trump
36
Biden
35
+1% +1.4% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 45.5 27.5 +18.1%
2012 Romney v Obama 72.8 24.8 +48%
2008 McCain v Obama 62.6 34.4 +28.2%
2004 Bush v Kerry 71.5 26 +45.5%
2000 Bush v Gore 66.8 26.3 +40.5%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 10:42 AM EDT
10/15
Utah changed from Likely Trump to Safe Trump
10/5
Utah polls jumped 2.2% toward Biden (was R+15.4%, now R+13.2%)
9/17
Utah polls jumped 2.4% toward Trump (was R+13.4%, now R+15.8%)
8/7
Utah polls jumped 3.4% toward Trump (was R+12.5%, now R+15.9%)
Utah changed from Lean Trump to Likely Trump
7/24
Utah polls jumped 2% toward Biden (was R+14.6%, now R+12.6%)