Utah

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/4 7:56 PM EDT
Winner
Trump
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Utah changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Utah Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
0%
Polls: 40.8%
Trump
100%
Polls: 52.9% +12.1%
100%



Swing

 
+5.9%
From 2016 Results
+3.6%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.477 Testing Range: +/- 5.83%






Polls

 
40.8%
Biden
52.9%
Trump (+12.1%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,435 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% 0.25
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,435 Trump
54		 Biden
43		 +11% +16% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,519 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% 0.23
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,519 Trump
54		 Biden
43		 +11% +16% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,511 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% 0.2
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,511 Trump
54		 Biden
43		 +11% +16% -
10/31/20 10/15-10/24 Y2 Analytics B/C LV 660 Trump
51		 Biden
44		 +7% +7.4% 0.67
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,517 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% 0.18
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,517 Trump
54		 Biden
43		 +11% +16% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,783 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% 0.06
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,783 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,689 Trump
54		 Biden
43		 +11% +16% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,689 Trump
54		 Biden
43		 +11% +16% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,466 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +12% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,466 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,434 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +12% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,434 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +12% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,398 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +12% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,398 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,340 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +12% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,340 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/23/20 10/12-10/17 RMG Research B/C LV 1,000 Trump
50		 Biden
38		 +12% +12% 0.55
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,304 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,304 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +12% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,279 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +12% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,279 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +12% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,239 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,239 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +12% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,187 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,187 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,152 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,152 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,112 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,112 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,002 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,002 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,913 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,913 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,843 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,843 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,783 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,783 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/5/20 9/26-10/4 Y2 Analytics B/C LV 1,214 Trump
50		 Biden
40		 +10% +10.4% 0.27
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 412 Trump
54.9		 Biden
43.2		 +11.7% +16.7% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 412 Trump
57.3		 Biden
41.4		 +15.8% +20.8% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,037 Trump
58.1		 Biden
39.8		 +18.3% +23.3% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,037 Trump
58.4		 Biden
40		 +18.4% +23.4% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 893 Trump
56.4		 Biden
42		 +14.4% +19.4% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 893 Trump
57		 Biden
41.5		 +15.6% +20.6% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,192 Trump
55.6		 Biden
42.7		 +12.9% +17.9% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,192 Trump
56.1		 Biden
42.3		 +13.8% +18.8% -
9/17/20 9/7-9/12 RMG Research B/C LV 1,000 Trump
53		 Biden
35		 +18% +18% -
8/7/20 7/27-8/1 RMG Research B/C RV 1,000 Trump
50		 Biden
31		 +19% +19% -
6/18/20 5/9-5/15 Y2 Analytics B/C LV 1,078 Trump
48		 Biden
38		 +10% +10.4% -
6/18/20 5/9-5/15 Y2 Analytics B/C LV 1,078 Trump
48		 Biden
38		 +10% +10.4% -
6/18/20 5/9-5/15 Y2 Analytics B/C LV 1,078 Trump
46		 Biden
40		 +6% +6.4% -
6/18/20 5/9-5/15 Y2 Analytics B/C LV 1,078 Trump
46		 Biden
40		 +6% +6.4% -
5/26/20 5/9-5/15 Y2 Analytics B/C LV 1,078 Trump
44		 Biden
41		 +3% +3.4% -
4/29/20 4/15-4/21 RMG Research B/C RV 964 Trump
51		 Biden
32		 +19% +19% -
4/13/20 3/21-3/30 Y2 Analytics B/C LV 1,266 Trump
46		 Biden
41		 +5% +5.4% -
3/6/20 2/24-3/1 RMG Research B/C RV 1,000 Trump
50		 Biden
33		 +17% +17% -
1/30/20 1/15-1/22 RMG Research B/C RV 1,017 Trump
49		 Biden
31		 +18% +18% -
8/30/19 7/31-8/6 Y2 Analytics B/C RV 149 Trump
36		 Biden
35		 +1% +1.4% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 45.5 27.5 +18.1%
2012 Romney v Obama 72.8 24.8 +48%
2008 McCain v Obama 62.6 34.4 +28.2%
2004 Bush v Kerry 71.5 26 +45.5%
2000 Bush v Gore 66.8 26.3 +40.5%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 1:12 AM EDT
10/15
Utah changed from Likely Trump to Safe Trump
10/5
Utah polls jumped 2.2% toward Biden (was R+15.4%, now R+13.2%)
9/17
Utah polls jumped 2.4% toward Trump (was R+13.4%, now R+15.8%)
8/7
Utah polls jumped 3.4% toward Trump (was R+12.5%, now R+15.9%)
Utah changed from Lean Trump to Likely Trump
7/24
Utah polls jumped 2% toward Biden (was R+14.6%, now R+12.6%)