Vermont

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 62.4% +29.1%
Trump
0%
Polls: 33.3%
100%



Swing

 
+2.7%
From 2016 Results
+0.3%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
62.4%
Biden (+29.1%)
33.3%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,002 Trump
30
Biden
67
+37% +32% 0.13
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,002 Trump
31
Biden
66
+35% +30% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 978 Trump
30
Biden
67
+37% +32% 0.11
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 978 Trump
31
Biden
66
+35% +30% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 969 Trump
31
Biden
67
+36% +31% 0.09
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 969 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 939 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% 0.07
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 939 Trump
32
Biden
65
+33% +28% -
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 858 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% 0.05
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 858 Trump
32
Biden
65
+33% +28% -
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 829 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% 0.04
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 829 Trump
32
Biden
65
+33% +28% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 785 Trump
32
Biden
67
+35% +30% 0.02
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 785 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 769 Trump
31
Biden
67
+36% +31% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 769 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 759 Trump
32
Biden
67
+35% +30% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 759 Trump
33
Biden
65
+32% +27% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 730 Trump
32
Biden
67
+35% +30% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 730 Trump
33
Biden
65
+32% +27% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 651 Trump
32
Biden
67
+35% +30% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 651 Trump
32
Biden
65
+33% +28% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 610 Trump
33
Biden
66
+33% +28% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 610 Trump
33
Biden
64
+31% +26% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 579 Trump
33
Biden
65
+32% +27% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 579 Trump
34
Biden
64
+30% +25% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 557 Trump
33
Biden
65
+32% +27% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 557 Trump
35
Biden
64
+29% +24% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 113 Trump
21.5
Biden
72.9
+51.5% +46.5% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 113 Trump
19.9
Biden
74.9
+55% +50% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 368 Trump
28.6
Biden
68.6
+40% +35% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 368 Trump
26.8
Biden
71.2
+44.4% +39.4% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 236 Trump
31.4
Biden
68.2
+36.9% +31.9% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 236 Trump
29.1
Biden
70.5
+41.4% +36.4% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 427 Trump
35.3
Biden
62.2
+26.8% +21.8% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 427 Trump
34.1
Biden
64.1
+30% +25% -
9/22/20 9/3-9/15 Braun Research B/C LV 586 Trump
32.5
Biden
55.7
+23.3% +22.1% 0.13


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 30.3 56.7 +26.4%
2012 Romney v Obama 31 66.6 +35.6%
2008 McCain v Obama 30.5 67.5 +37%
2004 Bush v Kerry 38.8 58.9 +20.1%
2000 Bush v Gore 40.7 50.6 +9.9%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/27 10:10 PM EDT
10/13
Vermont polls jumped 1.5% toward Trump (was D+29%, now D+27.5%)
10/3
Vermont polls jumped 7.8% toward Trump (was D+35.1%, now D+27.3%)
9/22
Vermont polls jumped 2.2% toward Biden (was D+31.7%, now D+33.9%)