Vermont
Live Election Night Forecast
Last Updated: 11/3 9:14 PM EDTWinner
Biden
Election Night Forecast Changes
Here you can see how the forecast has in Vermont changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.
Vermont Pre-Election Forecast
Safe Biden
Win Probability
Biden
100%
Polls: 65.2%
+34.3%
Trump
0%
Polls: 30.9%
Swing
+7.9%
From 2016 Results
+4.9%
From 2016 Polls
Polls
65.2%
Biden
(+34.3%)
30.9%
Trump
| Date | Pollster | Rating | Voters | Sample Size | Republican | Democrat | Diff | Diff (Adj) | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/2/20 10/20-11/1 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 719 | Trump 26 |
Biden 71 |
+45% | +40% | 0.24 |
| 11/2/20 10/20-11/1 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 719 | Trump 28 |
Biden 70 |
+42% | +37% | - |
| 11/1/20 10/18-10/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 737 | Trump 27 |
Biden 71 |
+44% | +39% | 0.22 |
| 11/1/20 10/18-10/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 737 | Trump 28 |
Biden 69 |
+41% | +36% | - |
| 10/31/20 10/17-10/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 734 | Trump 28 |
Biden 70 |
+42% | +37% | 0.2 |
| 10/31/20 10/17-10/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 734 | Trump 29 |
Biden 69 |
+40% | +35% | - |
| 10/30/20 10/16-10/29 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 749 | Trump 29 |
Biden 69 |
+40% | +35% | 0.18 |
| 10/30/20 10/16-10/29 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 749 | Trump 30 |
Biden 68 |
+38% | +33% | - |
| 10/29/20 10/1-10/28 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,167 | Trump 29 |
Biden 69 |
+40% | +35% | 0.07 |
| 10/29/20 10/1-10/28 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,167 | Trump 29 |
Biden 68 |
+39% | +34% | - |
| 10/29/20 10/19-10/20 | co/efficient | C/D | LV | 584 | Trump 32 |
Biden 62 |
+30% | +29.8% | 0.52 |
| 10/28/20 9/30-10/27 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,087 | Trump 30 |
Biden 68 |
+38% | +33% | 0.04 |
| 10/28/20 9/30-10/27 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,087 | Trump 30 |
Biden 67 |
+37% | +32% | - |
| 10/26/20 9/28-10/25 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,002 | Trump 30 |
Biden 67 |
+37% | +32% | - |
| 10/26/20 9/28-10/25 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,002 | Trump 31 |
Biden 66 |
+35% | +30% | - |
| 10/25/20 9/26-10/24 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 978 | Trump 30 |
Biden 67 |
+37% | +32% | - |
| 10/25/20 9/26-10/24 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 978 | Trump 31 |
Biden 66 |
+35% | +30% | - |
| 10/24/20 9/26-10/23 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 969 | Trump 31 |
Biden 67 |
+36% | +31% | - |
| 10/24/20 9/26-10/23 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 969 | Trump 32 |
Biden 66 |
+34% | +29% | - |
| 10/23/20 9/24-10/22 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 939 | Trump 32 |
Biden 66 |
+34% | +29% | - |
| 10/23/20 9/24-10/22 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 939 | Trump 32 |
Biden 65 |
+33% | +28% | - |
| 10/22/20 9/23-10/21 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 858 | Trump 32 |
Biden 66 |
+34% | +29% | - |
| 10/22/20 9/23-10/21 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 858 | Trump 32 |
Biden 65 |
+33% | +28% | - |
| 10/21/20 9/22-10/20 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 829 | Trump 32 |
Biden 66 |
+34% | +29% | - |
| 10/21/20 9/22-10/20 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 829 | Trump 32 |
Biden 65 |
+33% | +28% | - |
| 10/20/20 9/22-10/19 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 785 | Trump 32 |
Biden 67 |
+35% | +30% | - |
| 10/20/20 9/22-10/19 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 785 | Trump 32 |
Biden 66 |
+34% | +29% | - |
| 10/19/20 9/21-10/18 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 769 | Trump 31 |
Biden 67 |
+36% | +31% | - |
| 10/19/20 9/21-10/18 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 769 | Trump 32 |
Biden 66 |
+34% | +29% | - |
| 10/18/20 9/20-10/17 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 759 | Trump 32 |
Biden 67 |
+35% | +30% | - |
| 10/18/20 9/20-10/17 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 759 | Trump 33 |
Biden 65 |
+32% | +27% | - |
| 10/17/20 9/19-10/16 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 730 | Trump 32 |
Biden 67 |
+35% | +30% | - |
| 10/17/20 9/19-10/16 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 730 | Trump 33 |
Biden 65 |
+32% | +27% | - |
| 10/16/20 9/18-10/15 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 651 | Trump 32 |
Biden 67 |
+35% | +30% | - |
| 10/16/20 9/18-10/15 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 651 | Trump 32 |
Biden 65 |
+33% | +28% | - |
| 10/15/20 9/17-10/14 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 610 | Trump 33 |
Biden 66 |
+33% | +28% | - |
| 10/15/20 9/17-10/14 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 610 | Trump 33 |
Biden 64 |
+31% | +26% | - |
| 10/14/20 9/15-10/13 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 579 | Trump 33 |
Biden 65 |
+32% | +27% | - |
| 10/14/20 9/15-10/13 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 579 | Trump 34 |
Biden 64 |
+30% | +25% | - |
| 10/13/20 9/14-10/12 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 557 | Trump 33 |
Biden 65 |
+32% | +27% | - |
| 10/13/20 9/14-10/12 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 557 | Trump 35 |
Biden 64 |
+29% | +24% | - |
| 10/3/20 6/8-6/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 113 | Trump 21.5 |
Biden 72.9 |
+51.5% | +46.5% | - |
| 10/3/20 6/8-6/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 113 | Trump 19.9 |
Biden 74.9 |
+55% | +50% | - |
| 10/3/20 7/1-7/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 368 | Trump 28.6 |
Biden 68.6 |
+40% | +35% | - |
| 10/3/20 7/1-7/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 368 | Trump 26.8 |
Biden 71.2 |
+44.4% | +39.4% | - |
| 10/3/20 8/1-8/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 236 | Trump 31.4 |
Biden 68.2 |
+36.9% | +31.9% | - |
| 10/3/20 8/1-8/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 236 | Trump 29.1 |
Biden 70.5 |
+41.4% | +36.4% | - |
| 10/2/20 9/1-9/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 427 | Trump 35.3 |
Biden 62.2 |
+26.8% | +21.8% | - |
| 10/2/20 9/1-9/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 427 | Trump 34.1 |
Biden 64.1 |
+30% | +25% | - |
| 9/22/20 9/3-9/15 | Braun Research | B/C | LV | 586 | Trump 32.5 |
Biden 55.7 |
+23.3% | +22.1% | 0.05 |
Past Results
| Year | Candidates | Republican | Democrat | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Trump v Clinton | 30.3 | 56.7 | +26.4% |
| 2012 | Romney v Obama | 31 | 66.6 | +35.6% |
| 2008 | McCain v Obama | 30.5 | 67.5 | +37% |
| 2004 | Bush v Kerry | 38.8 | 58.9 | +20.1% |
| 2000 | Bush v Gore | 40.7 | 50.6 | +9.9% |
Updates
Last Updated: 11/3 1:45 AM EDT10/13
10/3
9/22
