Vermont

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/21 2:56 PM EST
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Vermont changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.





Vermont Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 65.2% +34.3%
Trump
0%
Polls: 30.9%
100%



Swing

 
+7.9%
From 2016 Results
+4.9%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
65.2%
Biden (+34.3%)
30.9%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 719 Trump
26
Biden
71
+45% +40% 0.24
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 719 Trump
28
Biden
70
+42% +37% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 737 Trump
27
Biden
71
+44% +39% 0.22
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 737 Trump
28
Biden
69
+41% +36% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 734 Trump
28
Biden
70
+42% +37% 0.2
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 734 Trump
29
Biden
69
+40% +35% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 749 Trump
29
Biden
69
+40% +35% 0.18
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 749 Trump
30
Biden
68
+38% +33% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,167 Trump
29
Biden
69
+40% +35% 0.07
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,167 Trump
29
Biden
68
+39% +34% -
10/29/20 10/19-10/20 co/efficient C/D LV 584 Trump
32
Biden
62
+30% +29.8% 0.52
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,087 Trump
30
Biden
68
+38% +33% 0.04
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,087 Trump
30
Biden
67
+37% +32% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,002 Trump
30
Biden
67
+37% +32% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,002 Trump
31
Biden
66
+35% +30% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 978 Trump
30
Biden
67
+37% +32% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 978 Trump
31
Biden
66
+35% +30% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 969 Trump
31
Biden
67
+36% +31% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 969 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 939 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 939 Trump
32
Biden
65
+33% +28% -
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 858 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% -
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 858 Trump
32
Biden
65
+33% +28% -
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 829 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% -
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 829 Trump
32
Biden
65
+33% +28% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 785 Trump
32
Biden
67
+35% +30% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 785 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 769 Trump
31
Biden
67
+36% +31% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 769 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 759 Trump
32
Biden
67
+35% +30% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 759 Trump
33
Biden
65
+32% +27% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 730 Trump
32
Biden
67
+35% +30% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 730 Trump
33
Biden
65
+32% +27% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 651 Trump
32
Biden
67
+35% +30% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 651 Trump
32
Biden
65
+33% +28% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 610 Trump
33
Biden
66
+33% +28% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 610 Trump
33
Biden
64
+31% +26% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 579 Trump
33
Biden
65
+32% +27% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 579 Trump
34
Biden
64
+30% +25% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 557 Trump
33
Biden
65
+32% +27% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 557 Trump
35
Biden
64
+29% +24% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 113 Trump
21.5
Biden
72.9
+51.5% +46.5% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 113 Trump
19.9
Biden
74.9
+55% +50% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 368 Trump
28.6
Biden
68.6
+40% +35% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 368 Trump
26.8
Biden
71.2
+44.4% +39.4% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 236 Trump
31.4
Biden
68.2
+36.9% +31.9% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 236 Trump
29.1
Biden
70.5
+41.4% +36.4% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 427 Trump
35.3
Biden
62.2
+26.8% +21.8% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 427 Trump
34.1
Biden
64.1
+30% +25% -
9/22/20 9/3-9/15 Braun Research B/C LV 586 Trump
32.5
Biden
55.7
+23.3% +22.1% 0.05


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 30.3 56.7 +26.4%
2012 Romney v Obama 31 66.6 +35.6%
2008 McCain v Obama 30.5 67.5 +37%
2004 Bush v Kerry 38.8 58.9 +20.1%
2000 Bush v Gore 40.7 50.6 +9.9%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 1:45 AM EST
10/13
Vermont polls jumped 1.5% toward Trump (was D+29%, now D+27.5%)
10/3
Vermont polls jumped 7.8% toward Trump (was D+35.1%, now D+27.3%)
9/22
Vermont polls jumped 2.2% toward Biden (was D+31.7%, now D+33.9%)