Vermont

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 6/29 1:10 PM EDT
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Vermont changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.





Vermont Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Safe Biden

Win Probability
(with same polling error as 2016)

This version of the model assumes the same polling error (polls on election day vs actual result) as 2016.
In Vermont the polls are shifted 3% more Republican.

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 63.2% +30.3%
Trump
0%
Polls: 32.9%
100%



Swing

 
+3.9%
From 2016 Results
+3.9%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
63.2%
Biden (+30.3%)
32.9%
Trump
 



Updates

Last Updated: 11/4 1:48 AM EDT
10/13
Vermont polls jumped 1.5% toward Trump (was D+26%, now D+24.5%)
10/3
Vermont polls jumped 7.8% toward Trump (was D+32.1%, now D+24.3%)
9/22
Vermont polls jumped 2.2% toward Biden (was D+28.7%, now D+30.9%)