Virginia

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Likely Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
97.3%
Polls: 52.2% +10.3%
Trump
2.7%
Polls: 41.9%
97.3%
2.7%



Swing

 
+5%
From 2016 Results
+4.1%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.297 Testing Range: +/- 5.31%




Tipping Point



3.8%
of the time





Polls

 
52.2%
Biden (+10.3%)
41.9%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,382 Trump
42
Biden
55
+13% +8% 0.13
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,382 Trump
41
Biden
56
+15% +10% -
10/28/20 10/15-10/27 Christopher Newport University B/C LV 908 Trump
41
Biden
53
+12% +11.2% 0.92
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,849 Trump
43
Biden
55
+12% +7% 0.09
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,849 Trump
41
Biden
56
+15% +10% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,811 Trump
43
Biden
55
+12% +7% 0.07
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,811 Trump
41
Biden
56
+15% +10% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,765 Trump
43
Biden
55
+12% +7% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,765 Trump
41
Biden
56
+15% +10% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,665 Trump
43
Biden
55
+12% +7% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,665 Trump
41
Biden
56
+15% +10% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,382 Trump
43
Biden
55
+12% +7% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,382 Trump
42
Biden
56
+14% +9% -
10/22/20 10/13-10/19 The Washington Post/George Mason University A+ LV 908 Trump
41
Biden
52
+11% +10.4% 0.93
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,170 Trump
43
Biden
55
+12% +7% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,170 Trump
42
Biden
56
+14% +9% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,912 Trump
43
Biden
55
+12% +7% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,912 Trump
42
Biden
55
+13% +8% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,654 Trump
43
Biden
55
+12% +7% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,654 Trump
42
Biden
55
+13% +8% -
10/19/20 9/22-9/25 Cygnal A/B LV 600 Trump
41.4
Biden
51.5
+10.1% +9.1% 0.33
10/19/20 10/9-10/11 Cygnal A/B LV 607 Trump
42.2
Biden
51.2
+9% +8% 0.65
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,595 Trump
42
Biden
56
+14% +9% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,595 Trump
42
Biden
56
+14% +9% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,529 Trump
42
Biden
56
+14% +9% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,529 Trump
42
Biden
55
+13% +8% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,242 Trump
42
Biden
56
+14% +9% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,242 Trump
42
Biden
55
+13% +8% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,878 Trump
42
Biden
56
+14% +9% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,878 Trump
42
Biden
56
+14% +9% -
10/15/20 9/30-10/12 Reconnect Research/Roanoke College LV 602 Trump
38
Biden
53
+15% +15% 0.19
10/15/20 10/11-10/14 Civiqs B/C LV 1,231 Trump
42
Biden
55
+13% +13% 0.62
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,522 Trump
42
Biden
56
+14% +9% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,522 Trump
42
Biden
56
+14% +9% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,248 Trump
43
Biden
55
+12% +7% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,248 Trump
42
Biden
55
+13% +8% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,619 Trump
39.9
Biden
57.9
+18% +13% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,619 Trump
42
Biden
56.6
+14.7% +9.7% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,178 Trump
41.6
Biden
56.3
+14.7% +9.7% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,178 Trump
43.4
Biden
54.9
+11.5% +6.5% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,626 Trump
39.7
Biden
57.5
+17.8% +12.8% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,626 Trump
40.6
Biden
57.3
+16.7% +11.7% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,882 Trump
40.6
Biden
56.6
+16% +11% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,882 Trump
41.7
Biden
56.3
+14.6% +9.6% -
9/24/20 9/9-9/21 Christopher Newport University B/C LV 796 Trump
43
Biden
48
+5% +4.2% 0.15
9/15/20 8/28-9/7 Virginia Commonwealth University B/C LV 693 Trump
39
Biden
53
+14% +14.2% -
8/26/20 8/9-8/22 Roanoke College B/C LV 566 Trump
39
Biden
53
+14% +13.4% -
7/30/20 7/11-7/19 Virginia Commonwealth University B/C LV 725 Trump
39
Biden
50
+11% +11.2% -
7/28/20 5/17-5/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,148 Trump
42
Biden
52
+10% +9.8% -
7/28/20 7/17-7/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,156 Trump
41
Biden
52
+11% +10.8% -
5/19/20 5/3-5/16 Roanoke College B/C LV 563 Trump
39
Biden
51
+12% +11.4% -
4/14/20 3/25-4/8 Virginia Commonwealth University B/C LV 663 Trump
41
Biden
51
+10% +10.2% -
3/3/20 2/25-2/28 Hampton University C/D RV 768 Trump
38
Biden
45
+7% +7.8% -
2/24/20 2/9-2/18 Roanoke College B/C LV 520 Trump
40
Biden
48
+8% +7.4% -
12/31/19 12/12-12/16 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy B+ RV 625 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +4.6% -
12/20/19 12/2-12/13 Virginia Commonwealth University B/C LV 728 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +3.2% -
12/20/19 12/2-12/13 Virginia Commonwealth University B/C RV 770 Trump
46
Biden
47
+1% +1.2% -
12/20/19 12/2-12/13 Virginia Commonwealth University B/C A 818 Trump
44
Biden
48
+4% +4.2% -
10/15/19 9/23-10/4 Virginia Commonwealth University B/C LV 645 Trump
46
Biden
51
+5% +5.2% -
10/15/19 9/23-10/4 Virginia Commonwealth University B/C RV 731 Trump
44
Biden
52
+8% +8.2% -
10/15/19 9/23-10/4 Virginia Commonwealth University B/C A 800 Trump
44
Biden
52
+8% +8.2% -
9/26/19 9/3-9/15 Research America Inc. B/C RV 882 Trump
38
Biden
55
+17% +16.8% -
9/26/19 9/3-9/15 Research America Inc. B/C A 1,009 Trump
37
Biden
55
+18% +17.8% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 44.4 49.7 +5.3%
2012 Romney v Obama 47.3 51.2 +3.9%
2008 McCain v Obama 46.3 52.6 +6.3%
2004 Bush v Kerry 53.7 45.5 +8.2%
2000 Bush v Gore 52.5 44.4 +8%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 10:41 AM EDT
10/15
Virginia polls jumped 3.4% toward Biden (was D+8.1%, now D+11.5%)
10/12
Virginia changed from Lean Biden to Likely Biden
10/11
Virginia changed from Likely Biden to Lean Biden
10/8
Virginia changed from Lean Biden to Likely Biden
10/7
Virginia changed from Likely Biden to Lean Biden