Virginia

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/5 10:28 PM EDT
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Virginia changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Virginia Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 53.1% +11%
Trump
0%
Polls: 42.1%
100%



Swing

 
+5.7%
From 2016 Results
+4.8%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 1.56 Testing Range: +/- 3.67%




Tipping Point



2.5%
of the time





Polls

 
53.1%
Biden (+11%)
42.1%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/27-11/1 Swayable D- LV 467 Trump
41.3		 Biden
56.3		 +15% +15% 0.57
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,145 Trump
41		 Biden
57		 +16% +11% 0.23
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,145 Trump
40		 Biden
57		 +17% +12% -
11/1/20 10/27-11/1 Data for Progress B- LV 690 Trump
43		 Biden
54		 +11% +11% 1.02
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,390 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% 0.2
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,390 Trump
40		 Biden
57		 +17% +12% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,326 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% 0.18
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,326 Trump
40		 Biden
57		 +17% +12% -
10/31/20 10/23-10/29 Roanoke College B/C LV 802 Trump
42		 Biden
53		 +11% +10.4% 0.87
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,330 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% 0.15
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,330 Trump
40		 Biden
57		 +17% +12% -
10/30/20 10/23-10/26 Swayable D- LV 351 Trump
44.3		 Biden
55.2		 +10.9% +10.9% 0.39
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,663 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,663 Trump
41		 Biden
56		 +15% +10% -
10/29/20 10/13-10/22 Virginia Commonwealth University B/C LV 709 Trump
39		 Biden
51		 +12% +12.2% 0.6
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,382 Trump
42		 Biden
55		 +13% +8% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,382 Trump
41		 Biden
56		 +15% +10% -
10/28/20 10/15-10/27 Christopher Newport University B/C LV 908 Trump
41		 Biden
53		 +12% +11.2% 0.7
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,849 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,849 Trump
41		 Biden
56		 +15% +10% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,811 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,811 Trump
41		 Biden
56		 +15% +10% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,765 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,765 Trump
41		 Biden
56		 +15% +10% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,665 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,665 Trump
41		 Biden
56		 +15% +10% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,382 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,382 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/22/20 10/13-10/19 The Washington Post/George Mason University A+ LV 908 Trump
41		 Biden
52		 +11% +10.4% 0.74
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,170 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,170 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,912 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,912 Trump
42		 Biden
55		 +13% +8% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,654 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,654 Trump
42		 Biden
55		 +13% +8% -
10/19/20 9/22-9/25 Cygnal A/B LV 600 Trump
41.4		 Biden
51.5		 +10.1% +9.1% 0.24
10/19/20 10/9-10/11 Cygnal A/B LV 607 Trump
42.2		 Biden
51.2		 +9% +8% 0.49
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,595 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,595 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,529 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,529 Trump
42		 Biden
55		 +13% +8% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,242 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,242 Trump
42		 Biden
55		 +13% +8% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,878 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,878 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/15/20 9/30-10/12 Reconnect Research/Roanoke College LV 602 Trump
38		 Biden
53		 +15% +15% -
10/15/20 10/11-10/14 Civiqs B/C LV 1,231 Trump
42		 Biden
55		 +13% +13% 0.47
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,522 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,522 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,248 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,248 Trump
42		 Biden
55		 +13% +8% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,619 Trump
39.9		 Biden
57.9		 +18% +13% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,619 Trump
42		 Biden
56.6		 +14.7% +9.7% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,178 Trump
41.6		 Biden
56.3		 +14.7% +9.7% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,178 Trump
43.4		 Biden
54.9		 +11.5% +6.5% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,626 Trump
39.7		 Biden
57.5		 +17.8% +12.8% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,626 Trump
40.6		 Biden
57.3		 +16.7% +11.7% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,882 Trump
40.6		 Biden
56.6		 +16% +11% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,882 Trump
41.7		 Biden
56.3		 +14.6% +9.6% -
9/24/20 9/9-9/21 Christopher Newport University B/C LV 796 Trump
43		 Biden
48		 +5% +4.2% -
9/15/20 8/28-9/7 Virginia Commonwealth University B/C LV 693 Trump
39		 Biden
53		 +14% +14.2% -
8/26/20 8/9-8/22 Roanoke College B/C LV 566 Trump
39		 Biden
53		 +14% +13.4% -
7/30/20 7/11-7/19 Virginia Commonwealth University B/C LV 725 Trump
39		 Biden
50		 +11% +11.2% -
7/28/20 5/17-5/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,148 Trump
42		 Biden
52		 +10% +9.8% -
7/28/20 7/17-7/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,156 Trump
41		 Biden
52		 +11% +10.8% -
5/19/20 5/3-5/16 Roanoke College B/C LV 563 Trump
39		 Biden
51		 +12% +11.4% -
4/14/20 3/25-4/8 Virginia Commonwealth University B/C LV 663 Trump
41		 Biden
51		 +10% +10.2% -
3/3/20 2/25-2/28 Hampton University C/D RV 768 Trump
38		 Biden
45		 +7% +7.8% -
2/24/20 2/9-2/18 Roanoke College B/C LV 520 Trump
40		 Biden
48		 +8% +7.4% -
12/31/19 12/12-12/16 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy B+ RV 625 Trump
45		 Biden
49		 +4% +4.6% -
12/20/19 12/2-12/13 Virginia Commonwealth University B/C LV 728 Trump
46		 Biden
49		 +3% +3.2% -
12/20/19 12/2-12/13 Virginia Commonwealth University B/C RV 770 Trump
46		 Biden
47		 +1% +1.2% -
12/20/19 12/2-12/13 Virginia Commonwealth University B/C A 818 Trump
44		 Biden
48		 +4% +4.2% -
10/15/19 9/23-10/4 Virginia Commonwealth University B/C LV 645 Trump
46		 Biden
51		 +5% +5.2% -
10/15/19 9/23-10/4 Virginia Commonwealth University B/C RV 731 Trump
44		 Biden
52		 +8% +8.2% -
10/15/19 9/23-10/4 Virginia Commonwealth University B/C A 800 Trump
44		 Biden
52		 +8% +8.2% -
9/26/19 9/3-9/15 Research America Inc. B/C RV 882 Trump
38		 Biden
55		 +17% +16.8% -
9/26/19 9/3-9/15 Research America Inc. B/C A 1,009 Trump
37		 Biden
55		 +18% +17.8% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 44.4 49.7 +5.3%
2012 Romney v Obama 47.3 51.2 +3.9%
2008 McCain v Obama 46.3 52.6 +6.3%
2004 Bush v Kerry 53.7 45.5 +8.2%
2000 Bush v Gore 52.5 44.4 +8%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 2:26 AM EDT
10/29
Virginia changed from Likely Biden to Safe Biden
10/15
Virginia polls jumped 3.4% toward Biden (was D+8.1%, now D+11.5%)
10/12
Virginia changed from Lean Biden to Likely Biden
10/11
Virginia changed from Likely Biden to Lean Biden
10/8
Virginia changed from Lean Biden to Likely Biden