Washington

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 5/15 12:50 AM EDT
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Washington changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Washington Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 58.4% +21.7%
Trump
0%
Polls: 36.7%
100%



Swing

 
+6%
From 2016 Results
+9.4%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
58.4%
Biden (+21.7%)
36.7%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/23-11/1 Swayable D- LV 489 Trump
38.6		 Biden
58.9		 +20.3% +20.3% 0.51
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,666 Trump
36		 Biden
62		 +26% +21% 0.26
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,666 Trump
35		 Biden
62		 +27% +22% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,931 Trump
36		 Biden
62		 +26% +21% 0.24
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,931 Trump
35		 Biden
62		 +27% +22% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,899 Trump
36		 Biden
62		 +26% +21% 0.21
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,899 Trump
35		 Biden
62		 +27% +22% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,911 Trump
35		 Biden
62		 +27% +22% 0.19
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,911 Trump
35		 Biden
62		 +27% +22% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,424 Trump
36		 Biden
62		 +26% +21% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,424 Trump
36		 Biden
61		 +25% +20% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,406 Trump
37		 Biden
61		 +24% +19% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,406 Trump
37		 Biden
61		 +24% +19% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,360 Trump
37		 Biden
61		 +24% +19% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,360 Trump
37		 Biden
61		 +24% +19% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,371 Trump
37		 Biden
61		 +24% +19% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,371 Trump
37		 Biden
61		 +24% +19% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,382 Trump
37		 Biden
62		 +25% +20% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,382 Trump
36		 Biden
61		 +25% +20% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,493 Trump
37		 Biden
61		 +24% +19% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,493 Trump
37		 Biden
60		 +23% +18% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,528 Trump
37		 Biden
61		 +24% +19% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,528 Trump
37		 Biden
60		 +23% +18% -
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,521 Trump
37		 Biden
62		 +25% +20% -
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,521 Trump
37		 Biden
61		 +24% +19% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,652 Trump
37		 Biden
62		 +25% +20% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,652 Trump
37		 Biden
61		 +24% +19% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,668 Trump
37		 Biden
61		 +24% +19% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,668 Trump
37		 Biden
60		 +23% +18% -
10/19/20 10/14-10/15 Public Policy Polling B LV 610 Trump
37		 Biden
60		 +23% +22.6% 0.59
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,667 Trump
37		 Biden
61		 +24% +19% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,667 Trump
37		 Biden
60		 +23% +18% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,677 Trump
37		 Biden
61		 +24% +19% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,677 Trump
37		 Biden
60		 +23% +18% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,733 Trump
37		 Biden
61		 +24% +19% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,733 Trump
38		 Biden
60		 +22% +17% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,781 Trump
37		 Biden
61		 +24% +19% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,781 Trump
37		 Biden
60		 +23% +18% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,664 Trump
37		 Biden
61		 +24% +19% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,664 Trump
37		 Biden
60		 +23% +18% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,731 Trump
37		 Biden
61		 +24% +19% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,731 Trump
37		 Biden
60		 +23% +18% -
10/12/20 10/8-10/12 SurveyUSA A LV 591 Trump
34		 Biden
55		 +21% +20.8% 0.57
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,939 Trump
37.4		 Biden
60.2		 +22.8% +17.8% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,939 Trump
36.7		 Biden
61.6		 +24.9% +19.9% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,691 Trump
36.7		 Biden
61.2		 +24.5% +19.5% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,691 Trump
36.8		 Biden
61.5		 +24.7% +19.7% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,489 Trump
37.7		 Biden
59.7		 +22% +17% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,489 Trump
37.5		 Biden
60.7		 +23.2% +18.2% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,953 Trump
35		 Biden
62.9		 +27.9% +22.9% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,953 Trump
34.7		 Biden
63.6		 +28.9% +23.9% -
9/22/20 9/8-9/14 Strategies 360 B/C RV 501 Trump
36		 Biden
58		 +22% +22.2% 0.11
7/28/20 7/22-7/27 SurveyUSA A LV 534 Trump
28		 Biden
62		 +34% +33.8% 0.06
5/22/20 5/19-5/20 Public Policy Polling B LV 1,070 Trump
37		 Biden
59		 +22% +21.6% -
5/21/20 5/16-5/19 SurveyUSA A LV 530 Trump
31		 Biden
57		 +26% +25.8% -
4/20/20 3/31-4/6 EMC Research RV 473 Trump
39		 Biden
52		 +13% +13% -
3/10/20 3/4-3/6 SurveyUSA A RV 992 Trump
34		 Biden
57		 +23% +22.8% 0.13
10/31/19 10/22-10/23 Public Policy Polling B LV 900 Trump
37		 Biden
59		 +22% +21.6% -
8/16/19 7/22-8/1 Zogby Analytics C+ LV 1,265 Trump
30.7		 Biden
51.9		 +21.2% +21.8% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 36.8 52.5 +15.7%
2012 Romney v Obama 41.3 56.2 +14.9%
2008 McCain v Obama 40.5 57.7 +17.2%
2004 Bush v Kerry 45.6 52.8 +7.2%
2000 Bush v Gore 44.6 50.2 +5.6%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 7:30 AM EDT
10/12
Washington polls jumped 2.2% toward Trump (was D+24.6%, now D+22.4%)
7/28
Washington polls jumped 5.7% toward Biden (was D+21.8%, now D+27.5%)
4/18
Washington changed from Likely Biden to Safe Biden