Washington

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 57.8% +22.1%
Trump
0%
Polls: 35.7%
100%



Swing

 
+6.4%
From 2016 Results
+9.8%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
57.8%
Biden (+22.1%)
35.7%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,360 Trump
37
Biden
61
+24% +19% 0.11
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,360 Trump
37
Biden
61
+24% +19% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,371 Trump
37
Biden
61
+24% +19% 0.09
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,371 Trump
37
Biden
61
+24% +19% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,382 Trump
37
Biden
62
+25% +20% 0.07
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,382 Trump
36
Biden
61
+25% +20% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,493 Trump
37
Biden
61
+24% +19% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,493 Trump
37
Biden
60
+23% +18% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,528 Trump
37
Biden
61
+24% +19% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,528 Trump
37
Biden
60
+23% +18% -
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,521 Trump
37
Biden
62
+25% +20% -
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,521 Trump
37
Biden
61
+24% +19% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,652 Trump
37
Biden
62
+25% +20% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,652 Trump
37
Biden
61
+24% +19% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,668 Trump
37
Biden
61
+24% +19% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,668 Trump
37
Biden
60
+23% +18% -
10/19/20 10/14-10/15 Public Policy Polling B LV 610 Trump
37
Biden
60
+23% +22.6% 0.72
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,667 Trump
37
Biden
61
+24% +19% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,667 Trump
37
Biden
60
+23% +18% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,677 Trump
37
Biden
61
+24% +19% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,677 Trump
37
Biden
60
+23% +18% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,733 Trump
37
Biden
61
+24% +19% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,733 Trump
38
Biden
60
+22% +17% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,781 Trump
37
Biden
61
+24% +19% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,781 Trump
37
Biden
60
+23% +18% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,664 Trump
37
Biden
61
+24% +19% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,664 Trump
37
Biden
60
+23% +18% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,731 Trump
37
Biden
61
+24% +19% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,731 Trump
37
Biden
60
+23% +18% -
10/12/20 10/8-10/12 SurveyUSA A LV 591 Trump
34
Biden
55
+21% +20.8% 0.71
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,939 Trump
37.4
Biden
60.2
+22.8% +17.8% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,939 Trump
36.7
Biden
61.6
+24.9% +19.9% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,691 Trump
36.7
Biden
61.2
+24.5% +19.5% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,691 Trump
36.8
Biden
61.5
+24.7% +19.7% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,489 Trump
37.7
Biden
59.7
+22% +17% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,489 Trump
37.5
Biden
60.7
+23.2% +18.2% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,953 Trump
35
Biden
62.9
+27.9% +22.9% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,953 Trump
34.7
Biden
63.6
+28.9% +23.9% -
9/22/20 9/8-9/14 Strategies 360 B/C RV 501 Trump
36
Biden
58
+22% +22.2% 0.18
7/28/20 7/22-7/27 SurveyUSA A LV 534 Trump
28
Biden
62
+34% +33.8% 0.09
5/22/20 5/19-5/20 Public Policy Polling B LV 1,070 Trump
37
Biden
59
+22% +21.6% -
5/21/20 5/16-5/19 SurveyUSA A LV 530 Trump
31
Biden
57
+26% +25.8% -
4/20/20 3/31-4/6 EMC Research RV 473 Trump
39
Biden
52
+13% +13% -
3/10/20 3/4-3/6 SurveyUSA A RV 992 Trump
34
Biden
57
+23% +22.8% 0.15
10/31/19 10/22-10/23 Public Policy Polling B LV 900 Trump
37
Biden
59
+22% +21.6% -
8/16/19 7/22-8/1 Zogby Analytics C+ LV 1,265 Trump
30.7
Biden
51.9
+21.2% +21.8% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 36.8 52.5 +15.7%
2012 Romney v Obama 41.3 56.2 +14.9%
2008 McCain v Obama 40.5 57.7 +17.2%
2004 Bush v Kerry 45.6 52.8 +7.2%
2000 Bush v Gore 44.6 50.2 +5.6%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 10:01 AM EDT
10/12
Washington polls jumped 2.2% toward Trump (was D+24.6%, now D+22.4%)
7/28
Washington polls jumped 5.7% toward Biden (was D+21.8%, now D+27.5%)