West Virginia

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 12/10 11:48 AM EDT
Winner
Trump
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in West Virginia changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




West Virginia Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
0%
Polls: 33.6%
Trump
100%
Polls: 63.1% +29.5%
100%



Swing

 
+12.6%
From 2016 Results
+3.8%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
33.6%
Biden
63.1%
Trump (+29.5%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 738 Trump
67		 Biden
32		 +35% +40% 0.24
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 738 Trump
67		 Biden
31		 +36% +41% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 798 Trump
66		 Biden
33		 +33% +38% 0.22
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 798 Trump
67		 Biden
32		 +35% +40% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 805 Trump
66		 Biden
32		 +34% +39% 0.2
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 805 Trump
67		 Biden
32		 +35% +40% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 791 Trump
67		 Biden
32		 +35% +40% 0.18
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 791 Trump
67		 Biden
32		 +35% +40% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,359 Trump
66		 Biden
32		 +34% +39% 0.06
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,359 Trump
66		 Biden
32		 +34% +39% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,315 Trump
66		 Biden
33		 +33% +38% 0.04
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,315 Trump
66		 Biden
33		 +33% +38% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,271 Trump
66		 Biden
33		 +33% +38% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,271 Trump
65		 Biden
33		 +32% +37% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,250 Trump
66		 Biden
33		 +33% +38% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,250 Trump
66		 Biden
33		 +33% +38% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,223 Trump
66		 Biden
33		 +33% +38% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,223 Trump
66		 Biden
33		 +33% +38% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,203 Trump
66		 Biden
33		 +33% +38% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,203 Trump
65		 Biden
33		 +32% +37% -
10/23/20 10/19-10/20 Triton Polling & Research LV 544 Trump
58		 Biden
37.9		 +20.1% +20.1% 0.41
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,154 Trump
67		 Biden
32		 +35% +40% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,154 Trump
66		 Biden
32		 +34% +39% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,115 Trump
67		 Biden
32		 +35% +40% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,115 Trump
66		 Biden
32		 +34% +39% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,075 Trump
66		 Biden
32		 +34% +39% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,075 Trump
66		 Biden
32		 +34% +39% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,020 Trump
66		 Biden
33		 +33% +38% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,020 Trump
65		 Biden
34		 +31% +36% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,002 Trump
64		 Biden
34		 +30% +35% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,002 Trump
64		 Biden
34		 +30% +35% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 972 Trump
63		 Biden
35		 +28% +33% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 972 Trump
63		 Biden
35		 +28% +33% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 914 Trump
64		 Biden
34		 +30% +35% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 914 Trump
63		 Biden
34		 +29% +34% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 857 Trump
64		 Biden
34		 +30% +35% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 857 Trump
64		 Biden
34		 +30% +35% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 824 Trump
64		 Biden
34		 +30% +35% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 824 Trump
64		 Biden
34		 +30% +35% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 771 Trump
64		 Biden
34		 +30% +35% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 771 Trump
64		 Biden
34		 +30% +35% -
10/13/20 10/1-10/6 Research America Inc. B/C LV 450 Trump
53		 Biden
39		 +14% +14.2% 0.32
10/7/20 9/29-9/30 Triton Polling & Research RV 525 Trump
56		 Biden
38		 +18% +18% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 264 Trump
70.3		 Biden
28.2		 +42.1% +47.1% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 264 Trump
71.7		 Biden
27.1		 +44.6% +49.6% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 494 Trump
66.4		 Biden
31.5		 +34.9% +39.9% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 494 Trump
67.3		 Biden
31.8		 +35.5% +40.5% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 496 Trump
65.3		 Biden
31.4		 +33.9% +38.9% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 496 Trump
65.2		 Biden
32.5		 +32.7% +37.7% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 516 Trump
62.4		 Biden
35.9		 +26.5% +31.5% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 516 Trump
62.3		 Biden
36		 +26.3% +31.3% -
1/15/20 1/7-1/9 WPA Intelligence B/C LV 500 Trump
66		 Biden
31		 +35% +34.2% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 68.5 26.4 +42.1%
2012 Romney v Obama 62.3 35.5 +26.8%
2008 McCain v Obama 55.7 42.6 +13.1%
2004 Bush v Kerry 56.1 43.2 +12.9%
2000 Bush v Gore 51.9 45.6 +6.3%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 9:14 AM EDT
11/1
West Virginia polls jumped 1.5% toward Trump (was R+27.2%, now R+28.7%)
10/30
West Virginia polls jumped 1.7% toward Trump (was R+24.1%, now R+25.8%)
10/23
West Virginia polls jumped 2.1% toward Biden (was R+25.1%, now R+23%)
10/13
West Virginia polls jumped 5.6% toward Biden (was R+26.4%, now R+20.8%)
10/7
West Virginia polls jumped 12.1% toward Biden (was R+37.6%, now R+25.5%)